Trees And Land Absorbed Almost No CO2 Last Year | Is nature ‘Failing’?
Surprising findings from 2023 changed the way we think about climate change. Recent research revealed that the planet’s natural systems, specifically trees and land, absorbed almost no carbon dioxide (CO2). This is concerning because CO2 absorption by land and trees helps to cool the Earth and regulate its temperature.
At Mauna Loa in Hawaii, the CO2 growth rate in 2023 reached 3.37 ± 0.11 parts per million (PPM), marking an 86% increase compared to the previous year. It is a record high since CO2 observations began in 1958. This suggests that both land and ocean carbon sinks, which are nature’s way of absorbing CO2, are weakening at an unexpected rate. Climate expert Johan Rockström explained this by saying, “We’re seeing cracks in the resilience of Earth’s systems.” This finding raises critical questions. Let’s have a closer look at the findings.
What Caused the Decline in Carbon Absorption?
Key Factors in 2023
In 2023, wildfires in the northern hemisphere played a major role in reducing CO2 absorption by the land. These fires, particularly those in Canada, were severe enough to produce the same amount of CO2 as six months of U.S. fossil fuel emissions. This sudden surge in CO2 levels weakened the capacity of trees and plants to act as carbon sinks.
Impact of Extreme Weather
Extreme weather events like wildfires, droughts, and high temperatures worsened the decline in CO2 absorption. As climate change intensifies, such events are becoming more frequent. It is hard for natural systems to recover and absorb carbon effectively.
“We are seeing in the biosphere some surprising responses that are not what got predicted.”
Researcher Andrew Watson from Exeter University
Oceanic Shifts
Oceans, the largest natural absorbers of CO2, are also showing signs of stress. Melting glaciers and disruptions in the Gulf Stream current slow down oceanic CO2 absorption. Moreover, sea ice melting exposes zooplankton (tiny marine animals) to more sunlight, keeping them at deeper ocean levels. This disrupts their usual pattern of rising to the surface to feed on algae, a process that helps store carbon on the ocean floor.
“In the northern hemisphere, where you have more than half of CO2 uptake, we have seen a decline trend in absorption for eight years.”
Philippe Ciais, a climate researcher.
Implications of a Weakened Natural Sink System
Global Climate Targets at Risk
The reduced absorption of CO2 by natural systems is putting global climate targets at risk. More than 118 countries rely on natural carbon sinks to help meet their national climate goals. For example, Australia, France, and Finland are already facing challenges. Finland, despite reducing its emissions by 43% across all sectors, saw no change in total emissions due to the decline in its land sink.
Current climate models have not fully accounted for these sudden declines. If natural sinks continue to weaken, achieving net-zero goals will become significantly harder.
“The issue of natural sinks has never really been thought about properly in political and government fields.”
Researcher Andrew Watson from Exeter University
Potential for Permanent Damage
While the decline observed in 2023 might be temporary, the long-term risk remains. If natural systems continue to weaken, it could lead to permanent damage, making it more difficult to stabilize the climate.
“We can’t just assume that we have forests and the forest will remove some CO2, because it’s not going to work in the long term.”
Pierre Friedlingstein, who oversees the Global Carbon Budget calculations, warned.
Protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks is crucial to slowing down climate change.
What Happens if Natural Sinks Fail Completely?
Consequences of Complete Sink Collapse
If natural carbon sinks were to fail completely, countries would need to make much deeper cuts in fossil fuel emissions to maintain climate targets. This would also have major effects on agriculture, biodiversity, and water cycles, potentially leading to widespread disruptions. While some regions, like the Congo Basin, continue to absorb more carbon than they release, other areas, like the Amazon rainforest, have become net carbon sources.
For instance, boreal forests, which stretch across Russia, Scandinavia, Canada, and Alaska, have seen a sharp fall in CO2 absorption due to wildfires, beetle outbreaks, and timber clearing.
To prevent this, efforts should focus on halting deforestation, improving soil health, and reducing fossil fuel emissions. As Ciais pointed out, “The fact that the models are lacking these factors probably makes them too optimistic.”
Conclusion
The 2023 decline in CO2 absorption by natural systems serves as a wake-up call. The urgency to address fossil fuel emissions is clear, but protecting existing carbon sinks is equally vital. While the situation is concerning, there is still hope for recovery if actions are taken quickly. Revised climate models are needed to include unexpected shifts in natural CO2 absorption, ensuring that efforts to fight climate change are based on realistic assessments. As Rockström noted, “Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end.” Immediate actions to reduce emissions and protect ecosystems are essential for restoring balance and achieving long-term climate goals.
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