According to reports from NASA scientists, the likelihood of the asteroid known as the 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has increased even more. Discovered shortly after Christmas, this celestial object now has a tangible risk of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
This marks a rare instance in which a near-Earth object warrants serious consideration. Especially since the probability of its impact has unexpectedly climbed from 1.3% to a concerning 2.3% on February 7th. But now NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab has updated that the impact has gone up to 3.1%.
As the asteroid goes across its elongated orbit between Mars and Jupiter, it creates a path that brings it perilously close to our planet.
The asteroid is expected to release 8 megatons of energy upon impact. It is nearly 500 times higher than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
In a recent update, a scientist said that ‘we might not be able to stop 2024 YR4’ from hitting Earth. He is even skeptical about the ability to deflect it with the given time.
‘Ýou need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission. We don’t have much time.’
Says Dr. Roin George Andrews. (volcanoogist and author)
The results of such an event are profound and varied. On the human front, the potential for devastation is significant.
If the 2024 YR4 strikes a densely populated urban area, it could incur catastrophic damage. Historically, a similar event occurred in 1908. A comparable asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening forests across 1, 250 square miles.
Economically and socially, the implications extend to potential shifts in space policy and emergency preparedness measures. The asteroid has a diameter ranging between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 90 meters) and to put things into perspective, it is likely bigger than the Statue of Liberty.
It is substantial enough to obliterate a city. But beyond that, it can also trigger far-reaching socioeconomic effects.
Utilizing cutting-edge technology, NASA and other global space agencies have put their efforts into monitoring this celestial threat carefully. Tracking the asteroid requires a suite of observatories and space telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. It is primed to collect crucial infrared data to determine the asteroid’s exact size.
On February 15th, Neil DeGrasse Tyson shared his take on the asteroid YR4.
“At the moment, the mansion-sized asteroid 2024-YR 24 has a one-in-fifty chance of hitting earth in the next eight years. Now might be a bad time t reduce spending on Science. Just saying. “
Neil Degarsse Tyson
Experts stress the uncertainty inherent in predicting asteroid trajectories. It notes that monitoring and calculations may render more accurate assessments over time. As mentioned by Farnocchia from NASA, ‘On the Torino scale — the method for categorizing impact hazards — 2024 YR4 is ranking at three out of ten. It is a rarity among such objects, which mostly rank at zero’.
As the days draw nearer to December 2032, international focus increases on 2024 YR4. Some experts propose possible deflection strategies that could thwart a disaster. Despite the small odds, the anxious watch over YR4 is an example of how we guard ourselves from cosmic challenges.
The initiatives enacted now could guide future policies and preventative measures, potentially shielding Earth from an ominous fate. Ultimately, the odds remain low. But the story of 2024 YR4 serves as a cautionary reminder of our vulnerability before cosmic forces.
